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Here's what to expect from the April jobs report on Friday
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesHiring likely continued at a brisk pace in April as investors look for any cracks in the labor market that could sway the Federal Reserve. If that top-line number is accurate, it actually would reflect a small step back from the average 276,000 jobs a month created so far in 2024. April's jobs market featured more strength in health care and leisure and hospitality, Glaser added. Beating expectationsIndeed, the labor market has been full of surprises this year, topping Wall Street estimates at a time when many economists expected hiring to have slowed down. "The Goldilocks scenario is an unemployment rate rise with a participation rate rise," Matus said.
Persons: Allison Joyce, Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Amy Glaser, resiliency, Glaser, we've, Drew Matus, Matus, Jerome Powell Organizations: Brunswick Community College, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, MetLife Investment Management, of Labor Locations: Bolivia , North Carolina
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStill holding on to our July Fed rate cut forecast, says MetLife's Drew MatusDrew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss Matus' expectations for the Federal Reserve, how the strategist believes the Fed is looking at inflation, and more.
Persons: MetLife's Drew Matus Drew Matus Organizations: MetLife Investment Management, Federal Reserve
Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September. If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations. The keyword there is “timely.”Sticky inflation could possibly “un-anchor” inflation expectations or elicit a consistent deterioration in Americans’ perception on inflation. “The Fed really just wants people to not expect inflation will run at 4% forever.”So what’s kept inflation expectations in check this long? For individuals and married people filing separately, the new federal standard deduction will increase to $14,600, up from $13,850 this year.
Persons: we’ve, Raphael Bostic, , ” Luke Tilley, , Jerome Powell, presser, Powell, Michelle Bowman, Tilley, ” Drew Matus, what’s, Matus, “ They’re, Jeanne Sahadi, Lisa Cook, Phillip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Investment Advisors, CNN, , New York Bankers Association, New York Fed, MetLife Investment Management, IRS, Tyson Foods, Depot, US Labor Department, National Federation of Independent Business, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Target, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, Walmart, National Association of Home Builders, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, Wilmington, Palm Beach , Florida
The job market or spending? The spending argument: But there have been instances in which spending weakened before the job market. “I think it starts with the perception of the labor market,” Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, told CNN. The ticket-industry giant said it has sold a record 140 million tickets so far this year, up 17% year-over-year and has already surpassed the 121 million tickets sold in all of 2022. In the third quarter, Ticketmaster sales surged 57% to $833 million and 90 million fee-bearing tickets were sold in the period.
Persons: can’t, ” Shannon Seery, “ It’s, ” Seery, Luke Tilley, ” Tilley, Jerome Powell, ” Drew Matus, , Taylor Swift, Parija Kavilanz, Swifties, Taylor, Michael Rapino, Beyoncé, Harry Styles, Bunny, Jonas Brothers, Bruce Springsteen, Lisa Cook, Michael Barr, Jeffrey Schmid, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Ralph Lauren, Steve Madden, Phillip Jefferson, Raphael Bostic, Tom Barkin, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, CNN, Employers, Investment Advisors, Companies, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNN Wednesday, Federal, MetLife Investment Management, Ticketmaster, Ryanair, Goodyear, Fed, Reserve Bank of Australia, Uber, Occidental Petroleum, KKR, The Carlyle Group, US Commerce Department, Biogen, Warner Bros, Teva Pharma, The New York Times Company, Armour, SeaWorld, MGM Resorts, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Sony Group, Astrazeneca, Tapestry, News Corp, US Labor Department, Soho House, National Statistics, European Central Bank, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Wells, Wilmington, Lyft, Brookfield, Soho
For the first two or so years of the pandemic, it looked like big, corporate landlords would buy up so many rental homes that they'd soon control the market that had been the purview of mom-and-pop owners. But five months in, the lull that started the year persists, said analysts at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a purveyor of real-estate data. According to JT Graham, a John Burns analyst who attended an April conference of the SFR lobbying group National Home Rental Council, the buzzword there was "patience." For those that do make the trip, they can console themselves that the industry's fundamentals are strong enough to offset headwinds such as soaring taxes and slowing rent growth, John Burns analysts said. They're also able to absorb defaults and vacancies in the way small landlords can't as their costs increase.
The SFR sector is facing fresh challenges this year, however, two KBRA analysts said. If you were an institutional investor looking to invest in real estate during the height of the pandemic, single-family rental properties were probably on your list. Home prices were rising quickly, and borrowing costs were low, underpinning the fundamentals of residential real estate. What's more, real estate research and investment-banking firm Zelman & Associates has estimated there's $110 billion in investor capital waiting to be spent on homes. Labor and supply costs have risen consistently, and massive home price appreciation is resulting in higher real estate taxes.
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Institutional investors may control 40% of U.S. single-family rental homes by 2030, according to MetLife Investment Management. And a group of Washington, D.C., lawmakers believe that Wall Street needs to back away from the market. Khanna is the lead author of the Stop Wall Street Landlords Act of 2022. "What's outrageous is your tax dollars are helping Wall Street buy up single-family homes," he said in an interview with CNBC. Since the early 2010s, Tricon Residential, Progress Residential, American Homes 4 Rent, Invitation Homes have each bought thousands of homes.
Institutional investors have earmarked as much as $110 billion to buy or build single-family homes. Institutional investors now own about 3% of the roughly 20 million single-family-rental homes in the US, according to Roofstock, an online marketplace for single-family investment properties. That would be nearly 9% of the roughly 88 million single-family homes in the US, according to the Census Bureau's most recent statistics from 2020. Better deals expected in the years aheadThere are signs the institutional investors won't have to wait long to begin buying. That leaves between roughly $70 billion and $80 billion that could still flow into the sector.
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